New ZeMKI Working Paper: "Uncertain Election Polls, Uncertain News Coverage: Two-Sided Heterogeneity in News Outlet–Pollster Relations"

Election polls and their news coverage function as a form of chained gatekeeping, shaping voters’ perceptions of fellow citizens’ preferences. The recent proliferation of polling firms equipped with low-cost, novel methods has not only multiplied competing results— confusing the perception of public opinion—but also compelled news outlets to selectively rely on trusted pollsters. To examine how outlets make these organizational choices, this study conceptualizes poll coverage as an interorganizational relationship between outlets and polling firms. By evaluating poll diversity at the outlet level, we find that highly insti- tutionalized outlets adhere to journalistic norms by diversifying their coverage, yet still exhibit a preference for legacy pollsters. Further, under conditions of dual heterogeneity, we show that emergent outlets tend to increase the visibility of less credible pollsters, thereby contributing to a more fragmented news ecosystem.

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